Start with recent sales, but don’t stop there. Texas sale prices aren’t public, and many luxury homes sell off market, so an accurate value also needs private sales, an adjustment for lot, water access, views and finish level, and a read on where the broader market is heading.
- Sale pricesNot public in Texas, a non-disclosure state
- Off marketHeavy volume from about $5M up, and still meaningful between $1.5M and $5M
- What moves priceLot size, water access and views, then the level of finish out
- The resultA range: a floor, a most-likely value and a stretch
The number you looked up is missing half the story
Almost every seller I meet has already looked up what their home is worth. They’ve checked an online estimate, pulled a few recent sales nearby, and maybe done some math on price per square foot. It’s a reasonable place to start.
In Austin’s luxury market, it’s also an incomplete one. Texas doesn’t make sale prices public, and in my experience off-market sales get heavy around $5M, where a high volume of homes change hands without ever being publicly listed. Even between $1.5M and $5M, a meaningful number of sales happen off market. The sales you can see are only part of the market your home will actually compete in.
My degree is in economics, and that’s how I approach pricing: start with the data, understand what’s driving it, and be honest about what it can’t show you. Here’s what the public picture misses, and how I price around it.
Why the public picture is incomplete
Texas is a non-disclosure state. When a home sells here, the price isn’t recorded in public records. Agents see closed prices through the MLS, but the public, and every website built on public data, is working with gaps.
Many luxury homes trade off market. At the top of Austin’s market, plenty of sellers prefer privacy, and plenty of buyers are found through agent networks before a home is ever listed. Those sales often never reach the MLS, so they’re missing from the comps most people, and many agents, rely on.
Online estimates have the least to work with on the homes that need them most. With limited public sale data and few truly similar homes, an automated estimate on a one-of-a-kind property is a rough guess at best.
Price per square foot is a guide, not the story. I always look at it. But above $1M, much of a home’s value sits in the lot, the water access, the views and the finish level. Two homes of the same size on the same street can be entirely different products.
Put those together and you get a common situation. A seller looks at the three nearest public sales and lands on a number. The homes that actually compete with theirs, and the ones that set the price buyers are paying, may not be in that set at all.
How I price around the gaps
- Start with the land. I work with builders to source lots and underwrite projects, and we do it firsthand through VERV RND, our in-house renovation and development company, so I know how a builder values the land on its own. That number is a floor the home should never price near, and it shows how much of the value sits in the house itself.
- Find the sales you can’t see. My relationships with the agents who work off market give me a view of private sales that never show up in public data. Those are often the most comparable homes of all. I also call the agents behind the public comps, because the MLS records a price but not the multiple offers, the repair credits, or the seller who needed to close in two weeks.
- Weigh what buyers at this level pay for. The features that move price most are lot size, water access and views, whether that’s the skyline, the water or the Hill Country. Then comes the level of finish out. Square footage is one input among many.
- Price for the market the home will sell into. Interest rate expectations, inflation and the general mood of buyers all shape what someone will pay and how quickly they’ll commit. Buyers turn cautious in uncertain stretches and come back when conditions ease. I track those signals so the price fits the next few months, not the last six.
The result is a range, not a single number: a floor, a most-likely value and a stretch. Where we land in that range depends on one thing more than any other.
Timing sets the strategy
If you need to move quickly, we price aggressively, right where comparable homes have actually been trading, including the private sales. A new listing draws its most serious attention in its first few weeks, and a sharp price puts it in front of the most buyers while that attention is highest.
If you have time, we can list a little higher and see what we catch. A quiet launch to a smaller group of agents and buyers, within MLS rules, can also show where demand really is before the home goes fully public.
Either way, the line I won’t cross is pricing a home so high that buyers and their agents stop taking it seriously. Once that happens, the price cuts that follow tell every buyer something is wrong, even when nothing is.
Why so many luxury listings start too high
When a luxury home sits and then takes a price cut, the seller usually gets the blame. Often, the price was set to win the listing, not to sell the home. A high number is the easiest way to get hired, and a seller who has looked up their own estimate is understandably drawn to the agent who agrees with it.
I don’t work that way. My job is to sell your house, not to tell you the number you hoped to hear. If the market doesn’t support a price, I’ll show you why, and we’ll decide together how to compete.
When you interview agents, ask each one the same three questions:
- Which sales did you use, and which did you throw out?
- What private or off-market sales did you factor in?
- If we’re wrong, how and when will we know?
The answers will tell you more than the number itself.
Frequently asked questions
How do I know what my luxury home is worth in Austin?
Start with recent sales, but don’t stop there. Texas sale prices aren’t public, and many luxury homes sell off market, so an accurate value also needs private sales, an adjustment for lot, water access, views and finish level, and a read on where the broader market is heading.
Are home sale prices public in Texas?
No. Texas is a non-disclosure state, so sale prices aren’t part of the public record. Agents see closed prices through the MLS, but off-market sales usually aren’t visible at all without relationships with the agents who handle them.
Are online home value estimates accurate for $1M+ homes in Austin?
They’re a starting point at best. They rely on limited public data, and they’re least reliable for one-of-a-kind homes.
Is price per square foot useful for luxury homes?
As a guide, yes, but only as a guide. Above $1M, much of a home’s value sits in the lot, water access, views and finish level, and price per square foot doesn’t capture that.
Should I list my luxury home high and come down later?
Usually not. If you have time, listing slightly above the market can make sense, but a price so high that buyers stop taking the home seriously leads to cuts that hurt more than they help.
How do interest rates and the economy affect luxury home prices?
They shape how many buyers are active and how confident they feel. Rate expectations, inflation and periods of uncertainty all change buyer behavior, which is why they belong in the pricing conversation alongside the local sales.
Want the full picture on your home? If you own a home in Austin and are weighing a sale, I’ll walk you through how I’d price it: the public sales, the private ones, the comps I’d throw out, and the range I’d be comfortable defending. No obligation, and you’ll leave with a clearer sense of where your home really sits. Let’s connect.
Kyler advises buyers, sellers, and investors on luxury and new-construction real estate across Austin, backed by a background in business economics: he doesn’t guess, he calculates. He partners with developer Peyton Thompson, giving clients both sides of the table, the build and the sale, across submarkets like Tarrytown, Barton Creek, and the Hill Country. Off the clock, his obsession with cars and motorsport shapes how he actually looks at a house.